Saturday, October 19, 2013

Black Money - Counter measures

This is a presentation on Black Money I made as part of my MA Economics course.


Black Money
What is Black Money ?  
Black money refers to funds earned on the black market, on which income and other taxes has not been paid.
Income illegally obtained or not declared for tax purposes.


Why its such a big problem?
India has a total GDP of $1 trillion ie $1000 billion
Studies say that nearly 40 to 50% is black.
That is, $400 billion is black.
Lets say we can tax it at the bare minimum 10%.
We will get $40 billion as revenue from tax.
What can we do in $40 billion ie $4000 crore 
Ie. Rs. 2,52,000 crore.
Finance the entire food security bill . Twice!!
Black money is the root cause of terrorism.


How to curb Black Money?
Simplification of tax laws

Minimizing cash transaction and encouraging the use of plastic money. Debit cards and credit cards usage should be encouraged.

Changing currency is the simplest solution to clean black money.

Simplification of tax laws    
Excessive tax rates increase black money and tax evasion.
When tax rates approach 100 per cent, tax revenues approach zero, because higher is the incentive for tax evasion and greater the propensity to generate black money.
The report finds that punitive taxes create an economic environment where economic agents are not left with any incentive to produce.
For eg. We could have something like this:
Increase IT limit to 5 lacs and then maximum of 25% income tax without any surcharge. Remove all tax exemptions provisions except LIC. Housing loan interest should made fully exempted.

Minimizing cash transaction
As per company rules all payment above value of Rs.20000 should be through cheque.
More than 90 percent of population of India does not earn 100 rupees a day; more than 50 % of population does not earn even Rs.20 a day. As such they will not face any problem.
In developed countries like USA, 99 percent of sale and purchase take place through cards or bank cheques and after giving acceptable identity only. In India 90 percent of sale and purchase takes place in cash. 


Change currency
If a country decides to change the currency, it should not give much time for people to convert it to new currency.
Give, may be, just one month time.
Don’t announce the plan of currency change. Plan properly, estimate the currency requirement, print all required currency, decide the date and announce.
Request people to deposit all the currency in banks and withdraw only required amount as new currency.
When they go to bank for depositing currency, everybody needs to give their PAN number or social security number or some way to identify themselves.
Sources 
Times of India : http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Black-money-Indians-have-stashed-over-500bn-in-banks-abroad-says-CBI/articleshow/11871624.cms
Wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_black_money
http://www.complexproblems.in/Black%20money.htm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-17013314
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21573979-banking-scandal-highlights-problem-black-money-india-evasive-action



Notes
Another measure is to demonetise larger denomination rupee notes
Money in circulation had increased by more than Rs.2 lakh crores in just two years from March 2008 to March 2010 as per the Reserve Bank of India's Annual Report.
It should be noted that the US withdrew notes above the denomination of $100 in 1969.


Notes
One historic example of tax avoidance still evident today was the payment of window tax. It was introduced in England and Wales in 1696 with the aim of imposing tax on the relative prosperity of individuals without the controversy of introducing an income tax.[17] The bigger the house, the more windows it was likely to have, and the more tax the occupants would pay. Nevertheless, the tax was unpopular, because it was seen by some as a "tax on light" and led property owners to block up windows to avoid it.
Notes
America’s underground or “shadow economy,” which of course isn’t taxed, represents 8.6% of GDP, by far the smallest of any of the countries on the list. Will McBride of The Tax Foundation says tax morale in the U.S. has probably gotten worse since the survey was completed because taxes have grown more complex.
As of 2013, there are seven tax brackets for ordinary income ranging from 10% to 39.6%




Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Top 5 Changes which will make India no. 1


India's Growth Environment Scores (GES) are very low and India scores below the other three BRIC nations, and is currently ranked 110 out of a set of 181 countries assigned GES scores.

If India were able to undertake the necessary reforms, it could raise its growth potential by as much as 2.8% per annum, placing it in a very strong position to deliver an impressive growth.
Below are the changes India must make to be number 1.

1. Improved governance. 

India’s governance problems overarch all its other problems.
Without
1. better governance, 
2. delivery systems 
3. effective implementation
India will find it difficult to educate its citizens, build infrastructure, increase agricultural
productivity, and ensure that the fruits of economic growth are well-distributed.

Governance problems stem from the increasing inability of the 
government and public institutions to deliver public services in the face of
rising expectations. A large gap between physical access to services and the
quality of services provided is leading to a citizen satisfaction gap.
The major problems in India in Governance are
Accountability of politicians to the voters is weak because there is little
connection between the citizens’ vote and the provision of services such as
roads, water, education and health-care, as myriad factors affect electoral
outcome. There is thus little incentive for even a well-meaning politician to
improve services.
Citizens do not organise to demand better services. The politics of caste
and other identity politics work so that the benefits of winning elections is
not to improve services but to control access to jobs or contracts.
The role of the state is blurred as both a regulator to ensure adequate
services and a producer of services. When the umpire is also the player, then
there is little incentive to improve delivery.
Citizens do not have the ability to hold service providers to account, as
the latter do not depend on them for financing.

2. Raise Basic Educational Achievement 

Many international observers tend to see education as one of India’s biggest
advantages. This is primarily because they tend to meet only the best and the
brightest. It is the case that India has a large number of highly educated people.

But it has a population of 1.1bn and probably the highest absolute numbers
anywhere globally receiving hardly any education.
GES scores include a variable for education. We measure the average
number of years of secondary education. Some might argue for a more
sophisticated measure, but there is evidence that the amount of time spent
receiving secondary education is important for economic growth and
productivity. India scores poorly relative to the other BRICs, and even below 
the average of all emerging market countries.
It is important that India improves the amount and quantity of money spent, and that the
quality is improved.


Without hundreds of millions of Indian citizens receiving a better basic
(elementary and secondary) education, it will be virtually impossible for India
to achieve its ‘dream’ potential.
According to the US State Department, the literacy rate in India
remains at a low 61%. The government is, of course, aware of the challenges,
and has repeatedly made commitments to a radical improvement, including a
plan to ensure 100% school enrolment by 2010.



According to data, half the 200mn primary school age children are unable to read or
write. Eleven out of 100 children don’t enter school, another 35 drop out before
completing 4-5 years of schooling, and another 30 drop out before reaching
grade VIII. Less than half of those remaining finish their senior school.

Ultimately it will be the role of the Government to ensure that India can raise 
educational standards. Without it, India will remain the country with potential. 



3. Increase Quality and Quantity of Universities

It will be shocking to know that  around 2.5mn graduates emerge each year from universities 
and colleges. Indeed, in some parts of the world, there are growing fears of an Indian ‘brain-takeover’ due to the large number of Indian graduates. Many leading international financial 
firms and technology companies abound with Indian talent that has benefited 
from higher education. However, again this ‘contradiction’ also partly reflects 
numbers. India’s domestic needs are large. To emphasise the point once more, 
between 2000 and 2020, India’s population is projected to grow by as much as 
the total current population of the US.

India plans to quadruple the number of its universities in the next ten years —an 
admirable goal and a huge challenge (National Knowledge Commission has proposed an increase in the number of universities from 350 today to 1,500 by 2016). 
Its goal should also probably be that at least 20 of these are the world’s best. Shanghai University has become recognised as the authoritative voice on leading universities. Its latest ranking does not show a single Indian university in the top 300.
Leading foreign universities are eager to ‘expand’ into India, either by developing an Indian campus or tying up with local entities that already exist. 
Many foreign educational establishments see very difficult ‘barriers to entry’ into the local market. 
As with other sectors, this needs to change. 
Foreign (especially the best) universities should be warmly welcomed.

4. Control Inflation: Why Not Have Inflation Targeting?

Formal Inflation Targeting (IT) should become a centrepiece of a clearer, more defined and credible 
medium-term framework for macroeconomic stability.
As part of this, there should be greater independence for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) 
and the abolishment of all FX controls. 
IT has given major benefits to a broad variety of countries, ranging from ‘developed’ countries (such as New Zealand, Sweden and the UK) to ‘developing’ ones (such as Brazil, Korea and South Africa).
For India, there are probably broader powerful benefits.

For a country gripped with corruption and bureaucracy, it is probably impossible for 
India’s huge and diverse population to ‘know’ what economic policy is trying 
to achieve.
A credible and strongly respected IT could help change that overnight, at least for economic policy. 

5. Introduce a Credible Fiscal Policy: A Medium-Term Strategy 

India’s gross fiscal deficit remains one of the highest in the world and, recently, 
government liabilities have been increasing at an alarming rate.

36.6 % from Capital Receipts which effectively means loans from the market and International banks like the International Monetary Fund.

Recent large debt-waiver for farmers, a big wage hike for civil servants, increasing fertiliser and oil 
subsidies, and higher exemptions on income tax. At such high levels, government borrowing crowds out private-sector credit, keeps interest rates high, adds to already high government debt, and becomes a key source of macro vulnerability.

Expenditures are directed less towards productive investment—especially in 
much-needed areas such as health, education and infrastructure, which could 
enhance growth—but rather on wages and subsidies. 
These do not improve 
long-term growth potential.
One example places this in context:
India’s central government subsidy on food, oil and fertiliser is equivalent to the entire 
collection on income tax.
(Although this could be slightly misleading as statistics often are.
The fact that there are only 35 million tax payers in India should shock you as we are facing the tax burden of the entire country.


A medium-term strategy for fiscal policy, which reduces the overall deficit to a sustainable level, is critical for India.



PS :
Heavy borrowing has been done from "Goldman Sachs : Global Economics Paper No: 169"
If you want to read the entire paper
Goldman Sachs : Ten Things for India to Achieve its 2050 Potential
Another blog I really like is :
OneMint